Programs of Experimentation of Pivoting for (Overconfident) Entrepreneurs)
Chen, J.S., Elfenbein, D.W., Posen, H.E., & Wang, M.Z., (2024) Programs of Experimentation of Pivoting for (Overconfident) Entrepreneurs). Academy of Management Review. Vol. 49. (1). pages 80-106. DOI 10.5465/amr.2020.0521
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How much should an entrepreneur experiment and when should they pivot? Do the answers to these questions change if the entrepreneur is subject to behavioral biases, such as overconfidence? In this paper, we develop a conceptual logic to address these questions. We focus on the design of a "program of experimentation," which we define as a sequentially interdependent set of experiments and pivot decisions an entrepreneur undertakes to develop a viable business idea.